Interim Iraq: Handover or “Hot Potato”? June 18, 2005

Interim Iraq: Handover or “Hot Potato”?

Talking Points

The UN Resolution 1546 passed unanimously on June 8, declaring an end to the occupation of Iraq and endorsing a “sovereign and independent” interim government until elections in January 2005
· Although the resolution gives Iraq control of its natural resources, revenues from oil and gas will flow into an international fund controlled by the U.S. led coalition until June 30. It will continue to be audited by an international board. After January 2005 elections, the Iraqi government can channel the money more directly into Iraqi hands.
· The resolution: calls on other nations to provide money, troops and support to get the Iraqi government functioning and economy developed; asks member nations to reduce Iraq’s debt; and affirms that all forces in Iraq follow international humanitarian law, including Geneva Convention.

Cost of War: Dollars and Sense?
· To date, there have been nearly 800 U.S. military casualties and more than 4,000 wounded in the conflict. U.S. communities are also burdened by the loss of local police, firefighters, and other personnel who have been dispatched to Iraq as members of the National Guard or reservists.
· The Bush Administration made a third supplemental spending request for $25 billion for the war in Iraq in May 2004 – All three supplemental spending requests are in addition to the annual $400 billion military budget.
· The $400 billion dollar Department of Defense budget for 2004 consumes more than 56% of all discretionary spending and 26 cents of every tax dollar.
· The cost of the Iraq and Afghan wars now rival the monthly cost of the Vietnam War. Operations in Iraq are estimated between $4 and $5 billion per month while the average cost of U.S. operations in Vietnam over the eight-year war was $5.1 billion per month, adjusting for inflation.
· One of the long-term effects of war on the U.S. is the diversion of investment federal funding of civilian research and development to war-related purposes. Nearly all of the 4.7% increase in R&D spending contained in the administration's FY2005 budget request would go to only two departments: Defense and Homeland Security. The rest of the R&D budget, funding advances in such fields as health care and new clean energy sources to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, will actually shrink.

The “War on Terrorism” Update
· The State Department admitted in early June that it was wrong in reporting a decline in worldwide terrorism last year – a finding earlier used by the Bush Administration as evidence of its success on in the “war on terror.”
· Additionally, the number of deaths was expected to be higher than the 307 originally counted for 2003 but the State Department anticipates it will not exceed the 725 fatalities recorded in 2002
· The war in Iraq has accelerated recruitment to al Qaeda and made the world less safe, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. It estimates worldwide al Qaeda membership now at 18,000 with 1,000 active in Iraq. It concludes that the occupation has become the organization's "potent global recruitment pretext," has divided the U.S. and UK from their allies, and has weakened the war on terrorism.

Post Occupation Iraq -Security
· Americans will hang onto 4,00-5000 detainees who pose a threat to the coalition. Although Saddam Hussein is classified as a POW, it isn’t certain whether he will remain in U.S. custody.
· A credible, well equipped Iraqi security force is necessary before coalition troops can be removed from Iraq.
· In April, Iraqi security forces failed their first big test after nearly half of the police and military forces deserted under U.S. orders to fight their countrymen in Fallujah, Najaf, Karbala and elsewhere. The lesson learned was that Iraqi soldiers need an Iraqi command hierarchy.
· According to one official, when $257 million in spending authority was held up by Paul Wolfowitz’s office for construction of barracks for four Iraqi brigades awaiting training was delayed for two months.

Status of Infrastructure Reconstruction
· The Umm Qasr Seaport reopened to commercial traffic July 2003 – it now has revenue stream from port tariffs, regular dredging to keep the channel open to large cargo ships and receives about 40-50 ships a month.
· The overpopulated eastern sections of Baghdad is now being served by the newly rehabilitated Sharq Dijlah water plant, adding 225,000 cubic meters a day by August 2004. One Iraqi NGO repaired water pumping station in Baghdad, eliminating the leakage of raw water into the drinking water supply and reducing the health hazard for more than 2 million citizens.
· Working with the UN World Food Program, and coalition forces, USAID reestablished Iraq’s Public Distribution System in less than 30 days – continuing to provide food expertise to the Ministry of Trade in Baghdad and distribute food to all Iraqis.
· Almost 1,600 people took place in 74 democracy dialogue activities from May 16-20. Topics of discussion include elections, minority rights, the constitution, conflict resolution, gender equality, human rights, tolerance, democracy and youth and civic-military relations.
· A May 23 conference in the Maysayn Governate was attendee by 100 women and covered the women’s legal rights and family law, participation in the political sphere, Islam and politics and literacy – additionally, 55 grants totaling $3 million have been funded that focus on women’s issues, including establishing 14 women’s centers in Iraq.
· $52 million has been committed for 1,397 community projects in Iraq – 976 have been completed.
· The International Relief and Development organization has completed 270 projects with 142 community action groups focusing on income generation including a marketplace for 700 vendors.
· A cooperative that employed 300 seamstresses before the war has been restored, supported by USAID it will employ 150 women who will be trained in dressmaking.
· Post-war looting caused major setbacks for the reconstruction: 80% of the costs of reconstituting the Iraqi oil infrastructure are a result not of the war but a result of post-conflict looting – 200 schools were destroyed during the war, but thousands more were damaged and destroyed in the post war looting.
· Deadly bombings of Red Cross and U.N agencies last year and more recent attacks on private contractor convoys led many relief groups and corporations to scale down or pull out of operations in Iraq. The number of expatriate contractors in Iraq stands at about 70% of the early year total, says Portia Palmer, spokeswoman for USAID.

The Role of Women in Reconstruction
· According to some foreign policy experts, in post conflict situations – where women make up the majority of the population and have primary responsibility for raising children – raising female education and increasing female control of resources and female political voices can have a “profound” impact on development. This will be a challenge in Iraq and Afghanistan, where significant cultural and religious values restrict the role of women.
· Iraq has the second largest gender literacy gap in the middle east and one of the largest in the world – less than a quarter of Iraqi women are literate, compared to 55% of men.
· Educated women have fewer children and provide better health and nutrition for their families. In addition, they experience less child mortality, contribute more to the family financially and are more likely to educate their children than uneducated women.

Survey Says: Public Opinion in Iraq, America and Beyond…
· A recent poll of Iraqi’s by the U.S. backed government showed that more than ½ of Iraqis believe they would be safer if U.S. troops left and that all American behaved like those in the photos from Abu Ghraib – 92% consider the U.S. an “occupying force.”
· The same poll also found over half Iraqis believed conditions would improve after June 30 when and Iraq government takes over and slightly less believed the Iraqi police and Army would maintain security without U.S. forces.
· Seven out of eight Muslim countries polled were concerned that the U.S. might become a military threat to their countries – however, most continue to believe that Western-style democracy can work in their countries with the exception of Indonesia and Turnkey.
· In countries polled that were opposed to the war, they continued to back their government’s decision to stay out of the conflict. With the exception of Spain, the people of countries who choose to be involved in the conflict still support their government. – of the countries opposed most believe the coalition did not try hard enough to avoid civilian casualties.

Making the News
Talking Points

Media Woes:

· 55% of journalists in national media believe the press has not been critical enough of President Bush. Only 8% think the press has been TOO critical. (‘To Tell the Truth,” Krugman, NYT 5/28/04)

· Just over half of journalists at national media outlets and a letter less than half at local media outlets believe that journalism is going in the wrong direction – over half of both groups think increased “bottom line pressure” is hurting the quality of news coverage. (Bottom Line Pressures Now Hurting Coverage, Say Journalists, Pew Center 5/23/04)

· Over 75% of national and local journalist who have experiences staff cuts at their workplace say bottom mine pressures are seriously hurting the quality of news coverage. In the national media, the percent of journalist that believe news reports are full of factual errors continues to rise – from 30% in 1995 to 45% in 2004. (Bottom Line Pressures Now Hurting Coverage, Say Journalists, Pew Center 5/23/04)

Is it getting warmer in here?

· The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts the planet will warm by 2.7 to 10.5 degrees over this century. (“Turning up the Hype,” William Booth 5/27/04)

· Over 20,000 people died in Europe last year as a result of an extreme heat wave attributed in part to global warming. ("With Nature There Are No Special Effects," Renato Redentor Constantino 6/4/04)

· According to leading insurance companies, climate-change related damages might cost $150 billion annually within a decade. The companies warn that unless action is taken today, the insurance industry could go bankrupt as extreme weather events such as storms and droughts increase in severity and frequency. ("With Nature There Are No Special Effects," Renato Redentor Constantino 6/4/04)

· A quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the U.S. (Pentagon’s Climate Change 3/1/04)

· 19 of the 20 warmest years on record have occurred since 1980. (Pentagon’s Climate Change 3/1/04)

· 20% of the North Pole ice has melted away since 1979 – endangering the lifestyles of native polar tribes and threatening many artic species. Polar bears that rely on dense ice shelves to hunt seals and traverse the artic seas find their hunting grounds reduced by melting ice and some penguin populations have dropped by half due to disappearing ice and snow. (Pentagon’s Climate Change 3/1/04)

· Currently $1.7 billion dollars a year is spent on climate research – while the administration continues to ignore existing research examining climate change, including a 2001 report done at the request of Congress which was highly lauded by scientists for its independent peer review. (Pentagon’s Climate Change 3/1/04)

American Opinion on the Environment

· 70% of Americans polled believe global warming is a very serious or somewhat serious problem – just 20% believe global warming does not represent a serious issue? (“Yale poll shows no need for Hollywood Hype,” 5/27/04)

· More than half of Americans polled want to hear more from presidential candidates George W. Bush and John Kerry about their positions on environmental issues. (“Yale poll shows no need for Hollywood Hype,” 5/27/04)

· 84% of Americans polled said the environment will be a factor in their vote in November. 35% said it would be a “major factor.” (“Yale poll shows no need for Hollywood Hype,” 5/27/04)

· 84% of Americans polled said the Unites States should enact stricter emissions and pollution standards for business and industry. (“Yale University Releases National Poll on the Environment” 5/25/04)

· 67% of American soled say the US government does not do enough about the environment and should do more. (“Yale University Releases National Poll on the Environment” 5/25/04)

The Roadless Area Conservation Rule….

(from “Protecting America’s National Forests, Saving the Last Wild 30%” Revised Edition)

Issued in January 2001 the Roadless Area Conservation Rule protects 58.5 million acres of wild national forest land from most commercial logging and road-building. With more than one-half of America's national forests already open to logging, mining, and drilling, the rule was intended to preserve the last third of undeveloped forests as a home for wildlife, a haven for recreation, and a heritage for future generations. It:

· ...Protects 58.5 million acres of national forest land in 39 states, including intact old-growth temperate Rainforests in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest

· ...Maintains current public access and recreational opportunities, including hiking, camping, hunting and fishing

· ...Preserves critical habitat for fish and wildlife, including more than 1,600 threatened, endangered, or sensitive plant and animal species

· ...Safeguards clean water from forest headwaters and streams, the source of drinking water for more than 60 million Americans

· ...Allows for actively managing lands, when necessary, to restore ecological processes, provide habitat for endangered species, or avert catastrophic wildfire

· ...Maintains access to state and private property within national forests

· The Roadless Area Conservation Rule resulted from the most inclusive public rulemaking process ever, involving the input of:

q Seven Federal agencies

q More than 180 Native American tribes

q Over 600 public meetings held nationwide – attended by 25,000

q Half a million public comments on the initial proposal and 1.1 million comments on the final proposal – 95% of which supported the proposal

q Seven separate hearings held before the US House and Senate committees and subcommittees.

· A 2001 poll showed broad bi-partisan support within the 67% of those supporting the policy; including 76% of democrats, 66% of independents and 58% of Republicans.

· As well as maintaining clean air, natural habitats for fish and wildlife and providing sources of clean drinking water, recreational activities in national forests generate five times the revenue of logging– currently US Parks and woodlands provide an estimate $100 billion in recreational benefits and nearly 330,000 jobs a year.

Urban Areas and Pollution (From Pentagon’s Climate Change Talking Points 3/1/04)

· More than 15% of U.S. children are at risk for brain damage and learning disabilities due to mercury exposure in the womb – coal burning power plants are the biggest man made source or mercury.

· Found most commonly in paint, lead is most dangerous to young children whose growing bodies absorb more lead than adults – causing brain damage, learning disabilities, joint pain and concentration problems.

· Asthma is the most common chronic childhood disease – affecting an estimated 5 million children, with the highest death rates among African Americans aged 15-24.