The Nuclear Option
How American’s Feel
· Most Americans surveyed in a poll by AP-Ipsos Public Affais say they do not think any country, including the United States, should have nuclear weapons. That sentiment is at odds with current efforts by some nations that are trying to develop the weapons and by terrorists seeking to add them to their arsenal.
· North Korea claims it has nuclear weapons now and is making more. Iran is widely believed to be within five years of developing such weapons. Security for the nuclear material scattered across the countries of the old Soviet Union remains a major concern.
· 52 percent of Americans think a nuclear attack by one country against another is somewhat or very likely by 2010. Also, 53 percent think a nuclear attack by terrorists is at least somewhat likely.
· Two-thirds of respondents say no nation should have nuclear weapons, including the United States. Most of the others surveyed say no more countries should get the weapons.
· Overall, 47 percent of those surveyed approved of dropping the bombs on Japan while 46 percent disapproved.
· The threat from nuclear terrorism is greatest, analysts say, because terrorists with nuclear weapons would feel little or no hesitance about using them. That's why those who monitor nuclear proliferation are so concerned about securing weapons stockpiles and dismantling weapons as quickly as possible.
For more on public opinions on nuclear weapons, see Ipsos-Public Affairs: http://www.ap-ipsosresults.com
Nuclear Facts
Dollars the US spends per day on maintaining its nuclear arsenal: $100 Million -- approximately what the International Atomic Energy Agency spends in one year to safeguard nuclear materials worldwide.
Number of nuclear weapons in the world: 30,000
More than 4,500 warheads remain on hair trigger alert.
The US and Russia possess over 95 percent of all nuclear weapons. More than 4,500 warheads remain on hair-trigger alert.
Pounds of fissile material necessary to build a crude nuclear bomb: 8-10
As little as 8 lbs of plutonium is needed to build a bomb. A missile is not needed to deliver such a device; a tugboat or truck could be used.
Number of countries capableof developing nuclear weapons: 44
44 countries have access to the fissile material and technology to build nuclear weapons. With the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty jeopardized, nuclear weapons could quickly spread.
Number of accidents, false alarms, and malfunctions involving U.S. nuclear weapons before 1980 according to the U.S. government: 32 Several of these have put us on the brink of accidental nuclear war.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/experience/the.bomb/broken.arrows/intro.html
128,000+: Estimated number of nuclear warheads built worldwide since 1945. All but 2 percent of these nuclear warheads have been built by the United States (55 percent or 70,000+) and Russia (43 percent or 55,000+).
$3.5 trillion: Amount the United States spent between 1940 and 1995 to prepare to fight a nuclear war.
$27 billion: Amount the United States spends annually to prepare to fight a nuclear war.
Source: Nuclear Facts at a Glance From the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) www.nrdc.org
Who Has What?
Nuclear-Weapon States:
China: More than 100 warheads.
France: Approximately 350 strategic warheads.
Russia: 4,978 strategic warheads,1 approximately 3,500 operational tactical warheads, and more than 11,000 stockpiled strategic and tactical warheads.
United Kingdom: Less than 200 strategic warheads.
United States: 5,968 strategic warheads,1 more than 1,000 operational tactical weapons, and approximately 3,000 reserve strategic and tactical warheads.
Defacto Nuclear-Weapon States:
Three states—India, Israel, and Pakistan—never joined the NPT and are known to possess nuclear weapons.
India: 45 to 95 nuclear warheads. The Pentagon projects that New Delhi has a relatively small stockpile of nuclear weapons components that could be assembled and deployed “within a few days to a week.”
Israel: Between 75 to 200 nuclear warheads.
Pakistan: 30 to 50 nuclear warheads. The Pentagon believes Islamabad stores its weapons in component form and could assemble weapons “fairly quickly.”
States of Immediate Proliferation Concern:
Iran: No known weapons or sufficient fissile material stockpiles to build weapons. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN body charged with verifying that states are not illicitly building nuclear weapons, concluded in 2003 that Iran had undertaken covert nuclear activities to establish the capacity to indigenously produce fissile material.
North Korea: One to two nuclear weapons, according to CIA estimates. Pyongyang also possesses enough spent nuclear fuel that could be reprocessed into fissile material for as many as six nuclear weapons.
Syria has forsworn nuclear weapons as a state-party to the NPT and its nuclear research reactor is subject to IAEA monitoring. The Pentagon stated in 2001 that Syria is not pursuing nuclear weapons. However, the CIA cautioned in late 2003, “broader access to foreign expertise provides opportunities to expand its indigenous capabilities and we are looking at Syrian nuclear intentions with growing concern.”
For more on what states possess nuclear weapons, see: Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance April 2005 http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat.asp?print
What is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
The NPT is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament. The Treaty represents the only binding commitment in a multilateral treaty to the goal of disarmament by the nuclear-weapon States.
Opened for signature in 1968, the Treaty entered into force in 1970. On 11 May 1995, the Treaty was extended indefinitely. A total of 188 parties have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon States. More countries have ratified the NPT than any other arms limitation and disarmament agreement, a testament to the Treaty's significance.
To further the goal of non-proliferation and as a confidence-building measure between States parties, the Treaty establishes a safeguards system under the responsibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Treaty promotes cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear technology and equal access to this technology for all States parties, while safeguards prevent the diversion of fissile material for weapons use.
The provisions of the Treaty, particularly article VIII, paragraph 3, envisage a review of the operation of the Treaty every five years, a provision which was reaffirmed by the States parties at the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference.
The 2000 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) met at the United Nations in New York from 24 April to 19 May 2000. The Conference was the first to be convened following the Treaty's indefinite extension at the 1995 Conference.
Source: UN website, http://www.un.org/Depts/dda/WMD/treaty/’
Bunker Busters
Also known as the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP), the bunker buster is portrayed as a weapon that could burrow into the ground before detonating, greatly increasing its ability to destroy hardened underground targets.
Supporters argue that the bunker buster is needed to attack hard and deeply buried targets (such as leadership bunkers or WMD production facilities) in countries of concern, thereby deterring or defeating such nations.
Critics reply that:
The bunker buster would lower the threshold for use of nuclear weapons and prompt other nations to develop nuclear weapons to deter U.S. attack.
Nuclear weapons (including the bunker buster) cannot be engineered to penetrate far enough into the ground to prevent nuclear fallout. To prevent fallout, a nuclear weapon with approximately the same yield as the one dropped on Hiroshima would need to be buried 850 feet in the ground. Currently, the best weapons casing available can barely penetrate 100 feet.
The yield of the bunker buster would be much larger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The bunker buster would have a yield of 100KT; the Hiroshima bomb was 15KT.
If a weapon with a yield of one kiloton was detonated some 35 feet underground(close to current capability), it would put one million cubic feet of radioactive debris into the air, and create a crater the size of Ground Zero in New York.
The bunker buster is regarded as a “tactical” nuclear weapon. Developing such a weapon would make it difficult to encourage Russia to dispose of its arsenal of over4,000 tactical nuclear weapons.
New nuclear weapons serve no practical role in countering the threats from extremists who are willing to use terrorist tactics. You can’t nuke a network or an extremist ideology.
For more points on Bunker Busters, see : www.wand.org