What’s Next for Iraq –Talking Points

On the Road to Democracy: Iraq constitution and election process

CONSTITUTION SCHEDULE
· 15 August deadline extended twice
· National referendum on constitution by mid-October
· Full government elections by mid-December

Referendum vote
· The draft constitution will be put to the popular vote in a referendum in October (15th). Under the electoral mechanism to be used, it only needs voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces to muster a two-thirds majority against the document for the constitution to fall by the wayside.
· The Sunnis are dominant in four provinces and so therefore effectively hold a power of veto.
· To ensure the constitution does not become law, the Sunnis will have to do something they did not do in the January elections - turn out and vote. That would mean that even in wrecking the draft document they would at least be engaging in the democratic process. And that could represent a significant development in Iraq's troubled path towards a brighter future.
For more information see, What next for Iraq's new charter? By Jon Brain BBC News, Baghdad http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/middle_east/4193690.stm
· the constitution vote three weeks from now still carries the potential to further destabilize Iraq, no matter which way it goes. Approval may prove a pill too bitter for Sunni Arabs to swallow, but rejection could throw the political process back a year and complicate America's exit strategy.

· The referendum is a key step in a 22-month political process outlined in an interim charter agreed to in March 2004. If adopted, it will be the basis for a general election to be held by Dec. 15 to chose Iraq's first full-term democratic government.

· Sunni Arabs, the dominant sect under Saddam Hussein, say the draft does not assert Iraq's Arab identity in strong enough terms. And they worry that its federalist character could lead to the breakup of the country into a Shiite south and a Kurdish north, leaving them in central Iraq with little more than isolated farmlands surrounded by expansive deserts.

· If a simple nationwide majority or a two-thirds majority in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote "no," the draft will be rejected, parliament will be dissolved and another parliament elected to start drawing up a new constitution.
· Sunni Arabs make up 15-20 percent of Iraq's estimated 26 million people and are believed to be the majority in four of Iraq's 18 provinces

For more information, see Iraq constitution fight not without hope HAMZA HENDAWI
Posted on Sun, Sep. 25, 2005 http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-5301790,00.html

· The draft constitution drawn up since June bears the imprint of the Shi'ite and Kurdish parties that dominate the parliament elected in January polls largely boycotted by Sunni Arabs.

· Fifteen Sunni Arab politicians were added to the drafting committee in an effort at inclusiveness, but the ICG says they felt increasingly marginalised after the Aug. 1 decision not to seek a six-month extension of the drafting deadline.

· Negotiations then took place informally among Shi'ite and Kurdish politicians. The Sunnis refused to sign their drafts.

· Sunni Arabs reject the draft mainly because they believe its provisions on federalism could lead to Iraq's break-up, leaving them in a landlocked heartland without oil resources.

· The proposed constitution is also vague and ambiguous on decentralisation and powers of taxation, the ICG says, with many other questions left for future legislation -- in parliaments where majority Shi'ites are likely to have the upper hand.

For more information, see Iraq constitution seen worsening insurgency-report
26 Sep 2005 12:11:24 GMT Source: Reuters By Alistair Lyon http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L26557825.htm

· Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the growing divisions between the country's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- and describes how a rushed constitutional process has deepened the rifts.

· On 15 October, Iraqis will be asked, in a referendum, to embrace a weak document that lacks consensus and is dangerously vague or ambiguous on key issues. It is likely to pass, despite Sunni Arab opposition: the Kurdish parties and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani have proven ability to bring out their followers, and the Sunni Arabs are unlikely to clear the threshold of two thirds in three provinces to defeat it. Passage may be the worst outcome, leaving Iraq divided along ethnic and sectarian lines, a situation the insurgents would exploit.

· The only hope left is for the U.S. to make a last-ditch effort to broker a true compromise that addresses core Sunni Arab concerns without crossing Shiite or Kurdish red lines. This requires the U.S. to sponsor negotiations to reach an agreement prior to 15 October that the constitution will subsequently be amended or appropriate legislation passed ensuring at a minimum that:

§ No more than four governorates can become a region through fusion, to assuage Sunni Arab fears of a Shiite super region in the South; and
§ Iraqis will not be excluded from public office or managerial positions on the basis of mere membership in the Baath party.

For more information see the report from the International Crisis Group (ICG), titled Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry at www.crisisgroup.org

The Cost of War and Reconstruction

· The Senate would give President Bush $50 billion more for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of a $440 billion defense spending measure a panel approved Monday.

· Reflecting a post-Hurricane Katrina debate about the role of the military in domestic affairs, the bill also will require that a report be provided on how National Guard units in neighboring states can be used to assist those affected by natural disasters.

· The House already has approved $45 billion more for the wars as part of its $409 billion version of the bill providing money for the Defense Department for the budget year that begins Oct. 1.

· Overall, Congress already has given the president about $350 billion for combat and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan and fighting terrorism worldwide since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, according to the Congressional Research Service, which writes reports for lawmakers. That total includes $82 billion that lawmakers approved in May.

· Lawmakers are doling out dollars for the wars even as concerns arise about paying for reconstruction of the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast. At the same time, Congress and the president are facing public unease about the direction of the war in Iraq, according to public opinion polls that show dwindling support for it.

For more information, see Bill Would Give Bush $50B More for Wars By LIZ SIDOTI
The Associated Press Monday, September 26, 2005; 2:38 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/26/AR2005092600821.html

· A USA TODAY/CNN Poll last week showed that a majority of Americans give the war effort a low priority compared to domestic needs. Asked for the best way to pay for Hurricane Katrina damage, 54% recommend cutting spending for the Iraq war.
· The hurricanes come at a time when money for Iraq's reconstruction is running low. Congress approved $18.4 billion in 2003, but $5 billion was later set aside to rebuild Iraq's military and police.

· Congress may balk at additional Iraq funding requests if they're also facing large bills for rebuilding hurricane damage, including as much as $200 billion to rebuild from Katrina alone
· Amina Juma'a, a 35-year-old Baghdad homemaker and mother of four, says she watched Bush touring the areas damaged by Hurricane Katrina and was stunned by the "clean and beautiful areas" where evacuees were resettled. "Why can't he do that in Iraq?" she asks.
For more information, see Iraqis wonder what price they'll pay in Katrina's wake
By Steven Komarow, USA TODAY http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2005-09-22-katrina-effect_x.htm

Public opinion regarding war and reconstruction

As you may know, the U.S. Congress has appropriated 260 billion dollars to fight the war and help rebuild Iraq. What best describes how you feel about federal spending on the rebuilding of Iraq?

We are spending too much............... 65
We are spending the right amount ... 27
We should spend more..................... 6
Not sure.......................................... 2

How confident are you that the money appropriated to rebuild Iraq is being spent wisely?

Very confident .................................. 7
Somewhat confident ......................... 28
Not too confident .............................. 31
Not at all confident............................ 33
Not sure.......................................... 1
Total Confident ............................... 35
Total Not Confident ........................ 64

For more information, see THE ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL CONDUCTED BY IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr050920-1toprevised.pdf&id=2787

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?"






Approve
Disap-prove
Unsure


%
%
%

9/16-18/05
32
67
1


"In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?"






Made aMistake
Did NotMake aMistake
Unsure


%
%
%

9/16-18/05
59
39
2


"Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq? The U.S. should send more troops to Iraq. The U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now. The U.S. should withdraw some troops from Iraq. OR, The U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq." Options rotated





.


SendMore
Same asNow
WithdrawSome
WithdrawAll
Unsure


%
%
%
%
%

9/16-18/05
8
26
33
30
3



For more information, see CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 16-18, 2005. N=818 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.


· A new poll finds a majority of Americans reject the idea of using military force to promote democracy. Only 35 percent favored using military force to overthrow dictators. Less than one in five favored the US threatening to use military force if countries do not institute democratic reforms.

§ Public Not Convinced Democracy Makes World Safer or Counters Terrorism, But Favors Cooperative, Diplomatic Methods for Promoting Democracy and Speaking out on Human Rights

· The effort to promote democracy in Iraq is generating little enthusiasm. Seventy-four percent (including 60 percent of Republicans) said that the goal of overthrowing Iraq’s authoritarian government and establishing democracy was not a good enough reason to go to war.

· Seventy-two percent said that the experience has made them feel worse about the possibility of using military force to bring about democracy in the future.

· Sixty-four percent (65 percent of Republicans) are ready to accept an Iraqi constitution that does not fully meet democratic standards

· once the constitution is ratified 57 percent want to start withdrawing troops.

· 26 percent agreed that with more democracies the world is safer,

· 45 percent agreed that people in democracies are less likely to support terrorists. Even the view, popular among political scientists, that democracies are less likely to go to war with each other was only endorsed by 46 percent.

· 42 percent assumed that when countries become more democratic they will be more likely to agree with US policies

· 26 percent assumed that if Saudi Arabia were to hold free elections the government would be friendlier to the US.

· Americans do favor the US promoting democracy through diplomatic, cooperative methods. Seventy-four percent favored helping emerging democracies with assistance in conducting elections.

· Nearly six in ten favor bringing student, journalists and politicians to the US to educate them on how democracy works.

The poll, a joint project of the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations and the Program on International Policy Attitudes, was conducted by Knowledge Networks September 15-21 with a nationwide sample of 808 respondents (margin of error plus/minus 3.5-4 percent). A full report and questionnaire can be found at http://www.pipa.org and http://www.ccfr.org