TALKING POINTS: Iraq Talking Points

Talking Points for Iraq War Anniversary

President Bush’s State of the Union Address Full Text:

Latest Public Opinion Polls

• “Though the Bush administration has framed the intervention in Iraq as a means of fighting terrorism, all around the world—including in the US—most people view it as having increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks. The near unanimity of this assessment among countries is remarkable in global public opinion polling.”—Steven Kull director of PIPA

• more people than not in 20 of 35 countries think US-led forces should withdraw from Iraq in the next few months, while in nine countries, more people think US-led forces should remain until the situation is stabilized. Six countries are divided. On average, 50 percent favor an early withdrawal, while 35 percent favor remaining until the situation is stabilized.

• The countries most eager for US coalition withdrawal are Argentina (80%), Egypt (76%), China (67%), Brazil (67%), Saudi Arabia (64%) and Senegal (64%).

• The countries most inclined to favor the US remaining until Iraq is stable are the US (58%), Afghanistan (58%), Australia (57%), Great Britain (56%) and Germany (55%).

• However, if the new Iraqi government asks US-led forces to remain until the situation is stabilized, the picture changes sharply. On average, 48 percent think US-led forces should agree to stay at the request of the new Iraqi government, while 32 percent stand by the view that, even if asked, US-led forces should pull out in the next few months.

What do Iraqis Want?

• Naturally one of the most interesting questions is how Iraqis feel about the presence of US-led forces. Iraqis are sharply divided, with 49 percent favoring an early withdrawal and 49 percent favoring US-led forces remaining until Iraq is stable.

• If the new Iraqi government asks the forces to stay, support for doing so rises only slightly, to 53 percent.

Countries With Forces in Iraq

• Six countries polled have troops in Iraq. In three, majorities favor remaining until Iraq is stabilized—the US (58%), Great Britain (56%) and Australia (57%).

• In Italy, views are divided (44% pull out, 47% remain) and in Poland, a plurality of 50 percent favors pulling out while 39 percent favors remaining. In South Korea a slight majority (51%) favors pulling out while 47 percent favors staying.

• If Iraq’s new government were to ask the forces to stay, support for staying jumps to a majority in all six of these countries—Australia (74%), US (73%), UK (69%), South Korea (69%), Poland (61%) and Italy (60%).

Countries that Neighbor Iraq

• Iraq’s immediate neighbors as well as Egypt all have clear majorities calling for withdrawal: 76 percent in Egypt; 64 percent in Saudi Arabia; 61 percent in Turkey and 58 percent in Iran (though over a third, 36 percent, prefer that the coalition remain).

• Even with an Iraqi government request, only 11 percent of Saudis think the coalition should stay (leave, 49%), 18 percent of Egyptians (leave, 63%), and only 28 percent of Turks (leave, 45%).

• When asked how the intervention had affected the likelihood of terrorist attacks around the world, all neighboring countries lean to the view that it had increased it. This is especially true of Egypt (83%) and Iran (77%). Turks agree only a little less forcibly (64%). In Saudi Arabia, a 49 percent plurality also thinks so, but 40 percent preferred not to answer the question. Afghans have the most mixed views: 39 percent think the war increased the likelihood of attacks, 29 percent think it decreased the likelihood and 20 percent think it made no difference.

(Source: Read the full analysis, “World Public Says Iraq War Has Increased Global Terrorist Threat” by World Public Opinion)

What US Troops Want

• Pollster John Zogby says he has been asked by senior military brass to give a presentation at the U.S. Central Command in Florida about his firm's recent poll of American troops in Iraq.

• 23 percent of the troops surveyed said they want to stay "as long as they are needed,"

• Seventy-two percent of the respondents said the United States should leave Iraq within the next year, and that included a 29 percent minority who said the United States should pull out of Iraq "immediately."

(Source: Most American troops are seeking Iraq exit strategy too By Clarence Page Originally published March 7, 2006)

Cost of War:

• The bill as of Aug. 2005 : $204.4 billion

• What $204.4 billion could have paid for in the U.S. for one year:

*Affordable housing units: 1.8 million or

*Scholarships for university students: 40 million or

*Head Start slots for a year: 27 million

• What $204.4 billion could have paid for around the globe for three years:

* Full funding for global anti-hunger efforts for and

* Full funding of world-wide AIDS programs for and

* Full funding for every child in the world for basic immunizations

• Estimated cost of war to date to every U.S. citizen: $727

• Average monthly cost of the Vietnam War, adjusted for infl ation: $5.1 billion

• Average monthly cost of the Iraq War: $5.6 billion

• Amount that military contractor Halliburton has been awarded in contracts: $10 billion

(Source: The Iraq Quagmire: The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War A Study by the Institute for Policy Studies and Foreign Policy In Focus. By Phyllis Bennis, Erik Leaver and the IPS Iraq Task Force; a comprehensive accounting of the costs of the war on the United States, Iraq, and the World. Report released August 31, 2005.)

• Top members of the Bush administration urged Congress Thursday to quickly pass a $91 billion spending bill that includes money to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

• The emergency spending bill includes about $65 billion for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as about $20 billion for Hurricane Katrina recovery efforts. Additional money would go to the State Department and intelligence agencies for international operations and classified activities.

(Source: Rice and Rumsfeld Press for $91 Billion for Iraq By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, NYTimes)

**For additional Information on the Cost of the Iraq War, see:

1) Bilmes, Linda, and Joseph E. Stiglitz. "The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years after the Beginning of the Conflict." KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP06-002, January 2006. http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/cost_of_war_in_iraq.pdf

2) How Costly Is Too Costly? Finding the Tipping Point for Vietnam -- and for Iraq by Mark Engler

The Future of the World: a global community?

Taken from projections National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project at: http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_es.html

• The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players—similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century—will transform the geopolitical landscape. The 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own.

• The world economy is likely to continue growing impressively: by 2020, it is projected to be about 80 percent larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50 percent higher.

• An expanding global economy will increase demand for many raw materials, such as oil. Total energy consumed probably will rise by about 50 percent in the next two decades compared to a 34 percent expansion from 1980-2000, with a greater share provided by petroleum.

• The nation-state will continue to be the dominant unit of the global order, but economic globalization and the dispersion of technologies, especially information technologies, will place enormous new strains on governments. In a rapidly globalizing world experiencing population shifts, religious identities provide followers with a ready-made community that serves as a “social safety net

• The US economy will become more vulnerable to fluctuations in the fortunes of others as global commercial networking deepens. US dependence on foreign oil supplies also makes it more vulnerable as the competition for secure access grows and the risks of supply side disruptions increase.

• While no single country looks within striking distance of rivaling US military power by 2020, more countries will be in a position to make the United States pay a heavy price for any military action they oppose. The possession of chemical, biological, and/or nuclear weapons by 2020 also increase the potential cost of any military action by the US against them or their allies.

• Over the next 15 years the increasing centrality of ethical issues, old and new, have the potential to divide worldwide publics and challenge US leadership. These issues include the environment and climate change, privacy, cloning and biotechnology, human rights, international law regulating conflict, and the role of multilateral institutions. The United States increasingly will have to battle world public opinion, which has dramatically shifted since the end of the Cold War.

(For other future projections based on current military, resource and health status, see the World Watch Institute Report “State of the World 2005” at: https://www.worldwatch.org/press/news/2005/01/11/ )